Remember those crazy predictions that Windows Phone would be scrapping with iOS and Android for top spot in the mobile OS wars in just a couple of years' time?
Well, they're back. Analyst firm IHS is saying WinPho will push past iOS to become the second most popular mobile platform after Android by the year 2015.
It's a brave prediction to make – even if IHS isn't the first to do so – but the firm reckons Windows Phone will reap the benefits of its partnership with Nokia to hold a 16.7% market share by 2015.
In fact, it's tipping Nokia to account for 50% of Windows Phone handset sales in 2012 – which in itself isn't a huge surprise considering just how little impact all the other phones have had so far.
“Combined with Nokia's efforts to drive the development of the Windows Phone ecosystem, the Lumia 900 and its successors will help Microsoft to reclaim its No. 2 ranking in smartphone operating system market share in 2015,” IHS' Wayne Lam says.
“Although Nokia is not the only seller of Windows Phone smartphones, the company is expected to dominate the market, accounting for 50 percent of all Microsoft OS-based handsets sold in 2012. The company’s share then is set to rise to 62 percent in 2013. Nokia's portion of the market will begin to decline in 2014, as other companies increase their sales of Windows Phone products.”
The problem, of course, is that none of it has actually happened yet. The arrival of WinPho 7.5 Mango on a new generation of handsets from the likes of Samsung and HTC has certainly given Microsoft's OS fresh momentum, but that's largely because things had ground down to an almost complete stop beforehand.
And while there's no denying that Nokia has the potential to be Windows Phone's white knight, the Lumia 800 hasn't exactly been flying off the shelves thus far.
Three years is a long time in the smartphone game – compare where Android is today versus where it was in 2009, for example – so we're prepared to keep an open mind for now. But if Windows Phone is to become a true platform superpower in the next few years, it'd better get a move on.