BlackBerry 10 is very slowly starting to take shape, and we’ve now been told to mark January 30 in our diaries for the official BlackBerry 10 launch.
It remains to be seen if anyone other than BlackBerry diehards will care, and in the meantime Jefferies & Co analyst Peter Misek estimates BlackBerry 10 has a “20-30% probability of success”. Er, whatever that means.
That might sound fairly pessimistic, but Pete has in fact raised his expectations, adjusting his RIM rating from “underperform” to “hold” accordingly.
Resultantly, RIM’s share price leapt into double figures for the first time in five months, hitting $10.04 in early Nasdaq trading yesterday.
Better still, Pete reckons RIM’s shares could skyrocket to $43 within the next 12 months – if the BlackBerry 10 gamble pays off.
"Preliminary results from our quarterly handset survey indicate developed market carriers have a much more positive view of BB10 than we expected," said Misek, in a note to clients.
"With greater carrier shelf space and marketing support, we now believe BB10 has a 20 percent to 30 percent probability of success.”
RIM reckons one key to BlackBerry 10 success will be offering “the most important 200 to 400 [regional] apps.” CEO Thorsten Heins quipped: “We don't have 1,500 Solitaire apps. That is not what Blackberry is about.”
BlackBerry 10 arrives at a strange time, sandwiched between CES and MWC. It also faces potentially tough competition for third place (behind Android and iOS) from Windows Phone 8 and Jolla’s MeeGo-based Sailfish.