After a year-long wait it wasn't a surprise to hear that some locations sold out their BlackBerry Z10 stock on launch day, but it did leave us wondering whether it was a case of high demand or limited supplies.
But one analyst has made a far gloomier suggestion: that both supply and demand were low, and is predicting sales of just 300,000 for the current quarter, 83% down on his initial prediction of 1.75m.
The pessimist in question is one T Michael Walkley of Canaccord Genuity, and in his latest note to investors he says checks of launch carriers and stockists paint a picture of “modest Z10 sales into the channel in the U.K. and Canada”.
“Our global surveys post the recent BlackBerry Z10 launch indicated mixed initial sales with limited initial supply cited as the reason for early post-launch stock-outs at some carrier stores rather than overwhelming demand,” Walkley wrote.
“Our follow-up checks have indicated steady but modest sales levels. With new BB10 smartphones launching in the US only in mid-March or later at subsidized prices no better than competing high-end Apple/Samsung smartphones, combined with our expectations for the Galaxy S IV to launch at a similar time frame in the US market, we are lowering our BB10 sales estimates for the February quarter and all of F2014.”
He went on to name-drop the next iPhone, too, and stuck firm on his company's existing Sell rating for BlackBerry stock.