Yeah, I know exactly what you’re thinking: ‘How can analysts possibly know what’s going to happen in the second half of 2013?’ Because they can PREDICT THE FUTURE, you fool. That's why they get paid the big bucks.
Oppenheimer & Co’s Ittai Kidron has been looking into his crystal ball, possibly while sitting on the toilet, and ultimately thinks the second half of 2013 looks a bit pants for Apple – certainly not as rosy as previously predicted.
Blaming “mixed” trends for iPhone 5 buying and a later-than-expected iPhone 5S launch, Kidron has reduced his forecast for Apple's financial Q3 and Q4 (Q2 and Q3, if you’re looking at a normal calendar).
Specifically, we’ve got a previously estimated $36 billion in Q3 revenue dropping to $35 billion, and $48.6 billion in Q4 falling to $38.9 billion. For the financial year, that’s $172 billion instead of $182.7 billion. Pocket change, really.
With regards to the iPad, June to December estimates have been “tempered”, as it’s not “as dependent on refreshes” as the iPhone.
Looking way into the future, Kidron reckons a larger iPhone would be “only mildly incremental to estimates/sentiment”, while he’s “lukewarm” on the prospect of the Apple iWatch.
The real “game- changing/innovation-reaffirming potential”, for Kidron’s money, is in iTV.
Apple’s shares continue to take a beating amid market-based negativity (increasing component prices, lack of innovation, loss of Steve Jobs...), with prices dropping below $400 yesterday morning.