Analyst predicts victory for Android, third place for WP7

Analyst predicts victory for Android, third place for WP7Research firm Ovum has published a rather interesting report detailing how it expects the smartphone market to evolve over the course of the next five years. Unsurprisingly, it backs Android to take pole position, with Apple next on the podium and Windows Phone 7 punching BlackBerry into fourth place.

Ovum predicts that global shipments of smartphones will reach 653 million by 2016, largely driven by Android. By that time, it reckons Google’s OS will hold 38% of the market share, with Apple on 17.5% and Microsoft’s WP7 not too far off at 17.2%. BlackBerry, meanwhile, will hold an estimated 16.5%.

Adam Leach, principal analyst with Ovum, explains: “The success of the Android platform is being driven by the sheer number of hardware vendors supporting it at both the high and low ends of the market.” Damn straight. There are literally hundreds of Android handsets, from cheap crap to super-duper dual-core goodness.

Leach expects another contender to emerge by 2016. “This could be an existing player in the market such as Bada, WebOS, or MeeGo, or it could be a new entrant to the market place.” Initially that might seem a little far-fetched, but remember how different things were five years ago? The iPhone was merely a twinkle in Apple’s eye, and Nokia was standing at the front of the Titanic declaring itself the King of the World.

Although Ovum predicts good things for Windows Phone 7, it’s not convinced that the highly publicised romance with Nokia is a good thing. “The risk to Microsoft is that other handset makers may choose not to compete with Nokia and may turn their backs on Windows Phone.”

Presumably we’ll all be flying around in hover cars by then, with robot servants running Android Yoghurt.

Read more about: AndroidBlackberry OSiOSWindows Phone

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JanSt / MOD  Mar. 26, 2011 at 14:19

Hahahahaha I had a laugh about this story yesterday on twitter with Jan Ole Suhr, the developer of the hugely successful Gravity app for Symbian.

2016! LOL How bored are these 'analysts', and who pays them? They admit themselves, 'oh, well, *cough* anything could happen' :p And my favourite bit? The predicted "17.2%" POINT TWO...five years from now. That crystal ball has Retina display resolution, for sure.
Who knew of HTC 5 years ago? Of Android? Or take WinMo 6.5 - an OS called a disaster upon launch, the HTC Hd2 with that 'disastrous OS' became a top-seller for HTC. Go figure?!
And plenty of analysts already sent flowers to the Nokia-Symbian funeral, and now we hear Nokia are working on new flagships with competitive hardware, and updated Symbian flavours; the Wall Street Journal and other US publications embraced the Nokia C7 Astound (possibly cause they now think Nokia is American ;) - or at 'least' Canadian)...
Then there is webOS - the Pre 3 etc look pretty tasty, and ...well, on April 1st 2016 they'll outsell Android! #markmyword <3

PS, yep - the Android yoghurt seems more plausible LOL

ecowarm  Mar. 27, 2011 at 11:01

HTC were pretty well known and their products popular 5 years ago. Only difference was they were an OEM providing smartphones based on Windows Mobile to all and sundry. The HD2 was a success because of spec and a keen price point, that's why I bought mine. I am certain the same phone with Android on release would have done even better ;)


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