BlackBerry OS meltdown leaves Windows Phone eyeing third place in the US mobile OS race

BlackBerry OS meltdown leaves Windows Phone eyeing third place in the US mobile OS race

Hold on to your seats, folks, as it looks like come November Windows Phone will finally become the “third ecosystem” that Microsoft boss Steve Ballmer and Nokia sidekick Stephen Elop have been banging on about for more than 18 months now.

StatCounter calculates that WinPho will finally overhaul BlackBerry OS in the US during the run-up to Christmas to take the best of the rest prize behind leading duo Android and iOS. A long, long way behind.

That prediction is based on linear projections for the two platforms based on their respective performances since the start of the year. And while Windows Phone continues to make (very small) market share gains, the shift is more a question of BlackBerry OS' complete collapse in the US, one that will see the RIM platform dropping below 1.5% share by the time Windows Phone gains the advantage.

That's right – come November the third biggest mobile OS on the market will still have a market share of less than 2%. That's a whole lot of pie for Apple and Google.

Both Microsoft and RIM will point to their respective OS overhauls, Windows Phone 8 and BlackBerry 10, as potential disruptions to that projected state of play (though BlackBerry 10 probably won't arrive in full force before 2013).

But let's face it – based on these figures both companies could triple their market share by the end of the year and still be nowhere near their dominant rivals from Cupertino and Mountain View.

According to StatCounter's figures things are far less clear-cut here in the UK, where Android and iOS are both one and two – but by a less dominant margin. In fact, the figures show that Android has only just claimed that second place in the past couple of weeks from BlackBerry OS, which is still on a solid 25% market share.

And Windows Phone? Well, we think we can pick out the line right down at the bottom of the graph...

Via WMPowerUser

Read more about: Blackberry OSWindows Phone

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13 comments

JanSt / MOD  Aug. 21, 2012 at 10:28

Ahem... in 2010 Blackberry announced a total userbase of over 50 million - that was before they become popular amongst teens, etc etc...
Up to date, MS sold 4.7 (-ish) million WP handsets.
So? Have all BB owners dumped their phones?
This is obviously about quarterly sales.
Heck... it's nonsense. The new WP8 devices announced/rumoured for September/October combined with early Xmas shoppery may well create a spike in sales, but not a 50= million spike :p
Not to mention that something called the 'next iPhone' is out in September/October, also...

Pondlife  Aug. 21, 2012 at 12:48

Well the chart is just from usa so seems more plausible that wp could be catching in that one market. Did the teen market take to the bb over there anyway.

JanSt / MOD  Aug. 21, 2012 at 13:06

Well the chart is just from usa so seems more plausible that wp could be catching in that one market. Did the teen market take to the bb over there anyway.
Sure... still, it is kind of misleading. The active userbase and monthly/quarterly sales are not to be confused. We all know iPhone sales always stall and stutter amonth or two before a new iPhone's launch... that doesn't mean WP will overtake iOS...

ian2606  Aug. 21, 2012 at 13:07

I work for O2 and have noticed a lot of people with a BB are uprading to something else. I wouldn't have one if they paid me to. We get more calls for BB phone problems than any other phone. Also get more iphone problems than the rest but that could be due to more in circulation.

JanSt / MOD  Aug. 21, 2012 at 13:28

I work for O2 and have noticed a lot of people with a BB are uprading to something else. I wouldn't have one if they paid me to. We get more calls for BB phone problems than any other phone. Also get more iphone problems than the rest but that could be due to more in circulation.

What are the iPhone problems, if I may ask?
Users "incompetence", or technical faults? Glass breakage?
Judging by our BB threads here a problem BB users have seems to be mainly revolving around BBM-activation, and poor information about what exactly BIS, BBM etc are...
But, yes some 'friends' of mine have had problems with their 8520s...

Pondlife  Aug. 21, 2012 at 13:28

Well the chart is just from usa so seems more plausible that wp could be catching in that one market. Did the teen market take to the bb over there anyway.
Sure... still, it is kind of misleading. The active userbase and monthly/quarterly sales are not to be confused. We all know iPhone sales always stall and stutter amonth or two before a new iPhone's launch... that doesn't mean WP will overtake iOS...


Off to read the sources to see what it's all about.
Even stalling and stutterring iphone sales are still head and shoulders (and torso and waist and thighs and knees and shins) above WP sales though.

JanSt / MOD  Aug. 21, 2012 at 13:35

Well the chart is just from usa so seems more plausible that wp could be catching in that one market. Did the teen market take to the bb over there anyway.
Sure... still, it is kind of misleading. The active userbase and monthly/quarterly sales are not to be confused. We all know iPhone sales always stall and stutter amonth or two before a new iPhone's launch... that doesn't mean WP will overtake iOS...


Off to read the sources to see what it's all about.
Even stalling and stutterring iphone sales are still head and shoulders (and torso and waist and thighs and knees and shins) above WP sales though.

Yes, I just mentioned that as an example of 'misleading' "trends"...
A 3rd eco system need the active user figures to really play in the same ballpark. Having 2 or 3 good sales months doesn't make it so. Just like a couple of poor growth months don't spell the end of the iPhone LOL

Pondlife  Aug. 21, 2012 at 20:27

Why do you think they've confused sales with userbase btw? Not seeing why you've reached that conclusion.
On linked site the comments suggest it's from website data rather than sales, but do say that leads to underestimating BB userbase as it's browser isn't good.

blizzard7  Aug. 21, 2012 at 20:35

I would say using linear growth for Windows Phone is a tad pessimistic with WP8 on the way.

JanSt / MOD  Aug. 21, 2012 at 21:32

I would say using linear growth for Windows Phone is a tad pessimistic with WP8 on the way.
I would agree, but then there's the iPhone launch around the same time...

Pondlife  Aug. 22, 2012 at 00:15

Found this quite interesting seeing how much money has been spent trying to shift nokia wp in the states. Seems like they've done better everywhere else, guess being available longer elsewhere helps but does seem to have stalled it's progress in the states even against other wp7 manufacturers. Htc more successful than Samsung at making something I guess..
http://wmpoweruser.com/the-majority-of-all-windows-phones-are-now-powered-by-nokia/

ian2606  Aug. 22, 2012 at 14:30

@JanSt
I should have been more clear, sorry about that. Most BB problems are keyboard not working and bbm not working. The most iphone calls are about poor network connection and calls dropping all the time. Do get a lot of insurance claims for broken glass on iphone. Its also suprising how many people buy smartphones, dont know how to use them and call us with stupid questions, because they're too idle to learn or find out themselves. A simple google search can sort out most problems ( which is what i do if i haven't got the answer) but customers want everything doing for them. Customers also think we should know every phone inside out. They dont realise that there is thousands of different phones and we cant know everything about all of them.

JanSt / MOD  Aug. 22, 2012 at 17:46

@JanSt
I should have been more clear, sorry about that. Most BB problems are keyboard not working and bbm not working. The most iphone calls are about poor network connection and calls dropping all the time. Do get a lot of insurance claims for broken glass on iphone. Its also suprising how many people buy smartphones, dont know how to use them and call us with stupid questions, because they're too idle to learn or find out themselves. A simple google search can sort out most problems ( which is what i do if i haven't got the answer) but customers want everything doing for them. Customers also think we should know every phone inside out. They dont realise that there is thousands of different phones and we cant know everything about all of them.


Thanks a lot for that.
Funny, I hear a lot about iPhones and dropped calls etc...
I must have been very lucky - when I had a 4S, it was one of the best experiences in terms of reception/network connection. Both GSM and WiFi...

And I appreciate the candid points re "knowing everything"! Like all mobile sites, Mobot gets a lot of posts about the 'incompetence' of instore staff, but I feel there is also the other side: stupid, stupid customers (oops). They forget or don't 'get' that (as you said) there are soooo many handsets, and b ) that those little gizmos do a lot more than many PCs could do 10 years ago... things are bound to GO WRONG. Often in mysterious ways ;)

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