Hold on to your seats, folks, as it looks like come November Windows Phone will finally become the “third ecosystem” that Microsoft boss Steve Ballmer and Nokia sidekick Stephen Elop have been banging on about for more than 18 months now.
StatCounter calculates that WinPho will finally overhaul BlackBerry OS in the US during the run-up to Christmas to take the best of the rest prize behind leading duo Android and iOS. A long, long way behind.
That prediction is based on linear projections for the two platforms based on their respective performances since the start of the year. And while Windows Phone continues to make (very small) market share gains, the shift is more a question of BlackBerry OS' complete collapse in the US, one that will see the RIM platform dropping below 1.5% share by the time Windows Phone gains the advantage.
That's right – come November the third biggest mobile OS on the market will still have a market share of less than 2%. That's a whole lot of pie for Apple and Google.
Both Microsoft and RIM will point to their respective OS overhauls, Windows Phone 8 and BlackBerry 10, as potential disruptions to that projected state of play (though BlackBerry 10 probably won't arrive in full force before 2013).
But let's face it – based on these figures both companies could triple their market share by the end of the year and still be nowhere near their dominant rivals from Cupertino and Mountain View.
According to StatCounter's figures things are far less clear-cut here in the UK, where Android and iOS are both one and two – but by a less dominant margin. In fact, the figures show that Android has only just claimed that second place in the past couple of weeks from BlackBerry OS, which is still on a solid 25% market share.
And Windows Phone? Well, we think we can pick out the line right down at the bottom of the graph...