IDC sticking to its guns on Windows Phone's 2016 success

IDC sticking to its guns on Windows Phone's 2016 success

It's already more than a year now since the first forecasts appeared claiming Microsoft's Windows Phone would be the second biggest OS in town in the next few years, having bumped iOS down a notch behind the all-powerful Android.

Yet despite what most of us would say has been a year of disappointment for WinPho, IDC is sticking to its guns, saying WP will (just) manage to eclipse Apple's mobile OS over the next four years.

The mobile OS space has for the most part become pretty simple over the past year: if you're Android and iOS, good times. If you're not... not so much. Windows Phone has come closest to breaking that mould, but when you think at the energy and money that's gone into the Nokia Lumia project, for instance, it really hasn't made too much inroads into the two leading contenders.

Still, IDC says any further gains will be even more hard-fought going forward. “The smartphone parade won’t be as lively this year as it has been in past,” IDC analyst Kevin Restivo said in revealing the firm's latest long-term forecast.

“The mobile phone user transition from feature phones to smartphones will continue in a gradual but unabated fashion. Smartphone growth, however, will increasingly be driven by a triumvirate of smartphone operating systems, namely Android, iOS and Windows Phone 7.”

The latest picture for 2016 shows Android continuing to dominate, but not to quite the extent it does at the moment. Most of that slack will have been taken up by Windows Phone, which will use those gains to come in narrowly ahead of iOS in second place, just short of 20% market share.

For us, probably more controversial at this point in time is the idea that BlackBerry OS' 6.0% helping of smartphone pie right now will be almost unchanged at 5.9% four years from now. That's putting a lot of faith not just in BlackBerry 10, but 11, 12 and 13 after that. We're not convinced.

Via WMPowerUser

IDC sticking to its guns on Windows Phone's 2016 success

It's already a year now since the first forecasts appeared claiming Microsoft's Windows Phone would be the second biggest OS in town by the year 2016, having bumped iOS down a notch behind the all-powerful Android.

Yet despite what most of us would say has been a year of disappointment for WinPho, IDC is sticking to its guns, saying WP will (just) manage to eclipse Apple's mobile OS over the next four years.

The mobile OS space has for the most part become pretty simple over the past year: if you're Android and iOS, good times. If you're not... not so much. Windows Phone has come closest to breaking that mould, but when you think at the energy and money that's gone into the Nokia Lumia project, for instance, it really hasn't made too much inroads into the two leading contenders.

Still, IDC says any further gains will be even more hard-fought going forward. “The smartphone parade won’t be as lively this year as it has been in past,” IDC analyst Kevin Restivo said in revealing the firm's latest long-term forecast.

“The mobile phone user transition from feature phones to smartphones will continue in a gradual but unabated fashion. Smartphone growth, however, will increasingly be driven by a triumvirate of smartphone operating systems, namely Android, iOS and Windows Phone 7.”

The latest picture for 2016 shows Android continuing to dominate, but not to quite the extent it does at the moment. Most of that slack will have been taken up by Windows Phone, which will use those gains to come in narrowly ahead of iOS in second place, just short of 20% market share.

For us, probably more controversial at this point in time is the idea that BlackBerry OS' 6.0% helping of smartphone pie right now will be almost unchanged at 5.9% four years from now. That's putting a lot of faith not just in BlackBerry 10, but 11, 12 and 13 after that. We're not convinced.

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10 comments

Pondlife  Jun. 7, 2012 at 11:42

It's more interesting if you add in a table of last years guesswork to compare to this one, makes them look even more random.

JanSt / MOD  Jun. 7, 2012 at 11:43

There was no Bada, WP, Android, MeeGo and Tizen four years ago. Just shut up, IDC.

Pondlife  Jun. 7, 2012 at 12:49

In fairness I would suspect that most people don't know there's a bada, MeeGo and Tizen now

JanSt / MOD  Jun. 7, 2012 at 12:57

well pondi, that isn't the point. Many ex-symbian fans consciously chose a MeeGo N9 because they hated Nokia's MS-deal...
More importantly: in 2009 many techie folks were unimpressed by Android.
A 2016 prediction is bull

equ  Jun. 8, 2012 at 13:26

Its just as lightly the fackbook phone, bada even a resurgent symbian to be the third ecosystem in four years. Pure guess work

JanSt / MOD  Jun. 8, 2012 at 13:56

Exactly.
Just don't be dazzled by those alphabet soup titles. Those 'analysts' ARE PR companies.
Their output is advertising for the highest bidder.

Pondlife  Jun. 8, 2012 at 16:17

Could even be an amazing comeback from RIM with BB10, nah couldn't keep a straight face while writing that.

JanSt / MOD  Jun. 8, 2012 at 16:35

First, before we even consider those, note that this is an 'update' to a bizarre and unrealistic projection IDC made last year in March, when IDC promised Windows smartphones would pass the iPhone (sound familiar? So this is a strategy by IDC to get headlines). They promised that by year 2015 Android would only have 39.5% market share, Windows would have 20.9% - yes by year 2015, not 19.2% as they now say for 2016 - and Apple would fall to 15.7% by 2015. They also said Blackberry would have 14.9% in year 2015. And their 'other' category had 8.8% but was not specified what all was in that.

Via Tomi Ahonen

As always an interesting 'take' on things.

Pondlife  Jun. 8, 2012 at 16:57

Their starting point figure is odd anyway begin with guessing this years figures and then have a stab at 4 years time, make more sense to start with actual figures?
At least the 2016 guess adds up to 100% I suppose

JanSt / MOD  Jun. 8, 2012 at 17:27

Their starting point figure is odd anyway begin with guessing this years figures and then have a stab at 4 years time, make more sense to start with actual figures?
At least the 2016 guess adds up to 100% I suppose
hahahaha

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