iPhone 5: has Apple finally peaked?

iPhone 5: has Apple finally peaked?Here's an eyebrow-raiser for you: Apple's share price today is nearly 100 times higher than it was 10 years ago. And there's no question that the biggest catalyst powering that upward spiral has been the iPhone.

But no growth can continue forever (though Apple seems determined to disprove that), and a growing band of analysts is now saying the newly launched iPhone 5 represents the high-water mark in Apple's dizzying ascent.

That's what they say every year, you're no doubt thinking, though to be fair nobody would realistically have predicted Apple's run of success when the iPhone first came out in 2007.

Fast forward to 2012 and we have the now-familiar story of a new iPhone breaking every previous sales record in the book, with the company's share price having pushed past $700.

However, analyst David Goldman has told CNNMoney that the records we're seeing blasted out of the water by the iPhone 5 won't be topped again next year – in fact, they probably never will be.

“The iPhone 5 may be Apple’s last blowout US bestseller,” he predicts simply.

It's worth noting the reference specifically to the US market – as while the UK market is in a fairly similar position, nobody's predicting there's isn't still plenty of room to grow for Apple's smartphone colossus on a global level.

Still, why should we believe Apple's upward run in developed markets is coming to an end this time when so many similar rumours have been proved completely wrong in the past?

Well, aside from the obvious “it has to stop sometime” argument, there's the widely accepted reality that the rate of smartphone uptake is slowing down – a combination of market maturity and difficult economic conditions.

And with fewer first-time buyers coming on to the market as smartphone penetration tops out, there simply isn't room left for the iPhone to grow and it's expected that next year's iPhone launch could be the start of a decline.

None of this is necessarily bad news – when you reach the top, the only way is down, after all, and any protracted slowdown in the smartphone market isn't going to affect only Apple.

But it's safe to say the company's share price won't be another 100 times higher come this time in 2022.

Via BGR

Read more about: iOSApple iPhone 5

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12 comments

JanSt / MOD  Sep. 23, 2012 at 15:13

Reasonable assumption. Almost writes itself, doesn't it?
And what do we know about the next 12 or 24 months?
No 5 bloggers can agree on why EXACTLY Nokia and WP are where they are now, or why BB this and Android that. We cannot agree on the last 6 months... The NEXT?
The economy is a big factor, also - but it's all too often unmentioned in these discussions. Nobody wants to remind 'visitors' of the bad times. But 3 or 4 years ago...heck, 2 years ago plenty of folks would part with big money just to try a device they weren't even sure about. Sell it on or put it in a drawer. Those times are over. For now. Next year? Who knows.

Pondlife  Sep. 23, 2012 at 16:26

I think the record sales of these blow the hole in the economy being a big factor argument tbh.

If they can come up with a more significant upgrade next year or even year after I think they could break this years records though.

eddyday  Sep. 23, 2012 at 16:54

Wishful thinking from Mobot. They were probably saying the same thing last year.

Pondlife  Sep. 23, 2012 at 17:00

Wishful thinking from Mobot. They were probably saying the same thing last year.

Why, you think mobots fate is inversely proportional to Apple? Can't say mobot needs Apple to fail.

Superbuddha  Sep. 23, 2012 at 17:30

I have read the exact same article about the iPhone 3GS...

Pondlife  Sep. 23, 2012 at 17:33

link?

JanSt / MOD  Sep. 23, 2012 at 18:23

I have read the exact same article about the iPhone 3GS...
Yes, but since then Android's exploded onto the scene, 10s of millions of iPhones, etc etc etc

JanSt / MOD  Sep. 23, 2012 at 18:46

Wishful thinking from Mobot. They were probably saying the same thing last year.
wishful thinking, how? I always forget whether we're pro- or anti-Apple... so, please, humour me :)

Pondlife  Sep. 23, 2012 at 19:03

Both simultaneously, it functions like the mind of an electric monk.

matt101101 / MOD  Sep. 23, 2012 at 19:06

Wishful thinking from Mobot. They were probably saying the same thing last year.
wishful thinking, how? I always forget whether we're pro- or anti-Apple... so, please, humour me :)

We're both, it depends who you ask :p.

socialjeebus  Sep. 24, 2012 at 03:22

It'll be interesting to see how many they sell over here in Korea.

Many Koreans were unimpressed by the Apple victory in the US court case and there was even talk of a boycott (don't think it has or will materialise though). However, none of my friends/colleagues have said they'll be buying one even though most of the iPhone 4 customers contracts are coming to an end. Many of them have already switched to the SGS3 (though most waited for the Korean LTE, 2GB ram version).

A bigger factor than a threatened boycott is that the iPhone 5 is not compatible with the Korea's second biggest (and the fastest and they even have a PSY Gangnam Style commercial) LTE network LG U+. Most Koreans, especially those with higher end phones, are loathe to switch networks as they are usually tied into their credit cards, discount/loyalty schemes, etc.

JanSt / MOD  Sep. 24, 2012 at 14:53

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