I recently penned Five reasons why the iPad mini will succeed, and the first reason was: hey, it’s Apple we’re talking about here.
One analyst on the ball enough (ahem) to realise Apple will inevitably sell loads of iPad minis in its opening weekend is Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster. He’s guessing 1-1.5 million.
Munster notes that that’s actually a fairly conservative estimate compared to the three million third generation iPads sold back in March at launch.
However, that’s specifically because the cellular versions of the iPad mini are still a few weeks away. As such, those iPad sales estimates are based on the Wi-Fi only iPad minis.
Also, Munster reckons smaller tablets only account for around one quarter of the market at present, so we should expect the iPad mini to shift fewer units than the full size chap.
Munster adds: “We believe that over time that will change, and consumers will gradually realize the benefits of the smaller form factor iPad, which will drive adoption, although it may not take form in lines for tomorrow’s launch.
“While we don’t believe we will see it tomorrow, we believe the iPad Mini will gain momentum and become a more important product for Apple as consumers realize the benefits in portability and ease of use (one hand) from a smaller device size.
“We believe that the smaller tablet market has lacked the presence of a smaller iPad that brings the Apple ecosystem and brand to that market. We estimate that about 20-25% of total tablets are of the ~7″ variety, but expect that percentage to be driven up significantly by the iPad Mini over the next few quarters.”