Nokia deal will take Windows Phone past iOS... by 2015

Nokia deal will take Windows Phone past iOS... by 2015By now we're all well aware that Android will rule the mobile universe for all eternity, gradually squeezing everyone else out until all phones run Google's operating system and resistance is utterly futile.

Or something like that, anyway. But forget Android for now – analyst firm IDC's latest crystal ball-gazing exercise concerns Windows Phone 7, which it claims will ride the momentum of the Nokia team-up to pass iOS for second place in the market by 2015.

Now, you may think that predicting the state of the mobile OS market four years into the future is much like turning on the TV tonight expecting a weather forecast for the August Bank Holiday. Next year. After all, this time four years ago the iPhone hadn't even appeared yet.

But IDC isn't letting that sort of thing stop it. The firm predicts that by 2015, Windows Phone 7 (well, whatever Microsoft is calling the platform by then, anyway) will be the guiding force behind 20.9% of smartphones, versus 15% for Apple.

Just what murky science IDC has employed to reach such precise numbers is probably irrelevant considering the odds of the figures actually being correct to that degree a full four years in the future. The point, though, is that IDC expects much of the current Symbian user base to flock over to Microsoft's platform over the next few years.

As for Android, WinPho's advance isn't likely to bother Google overly much, with IDC claiming its market share will rise from the 40% expected this year to as much as 45% four years down the line.

Read more about: AndroidiOSWindows Phone

Add a comment

JanSt / MOD  Mar. 30, 2011 at 10:18

pffft. :p
But it must be true. It's on the net :D

bob38  Mar. 30, 2011 at 11:40

Yet another sly Android dig, change the record.

stezo2k  Mar. 30, 2011 at 14:12

As much as I hate Apple this is doubtful

JanSt / MOD  Mar. 30, 2011 at 20:03

@bob38 not sure who your comment was directed at? I certainly wasn't digging Android - sly or otherwise. My comment was to the general crystal ballsery of self-proclaimed industry analysts. 2015! 4 years from now! Who knew HTC 4 years ago? Android? The iPhone? AppStores? (surely a 'bubble' that will eventually burst, or - to change metaphors: plateau...
Who knew Nokia would follow up on the N95 with such junk as the N97 to then recover and make the solid N8 to then throw their baking soda into Microsoft's dough? Who?
That, bob38, was what I was alluding to ;)
Plus: what windows phone are they ON ABOUT? In 4 years there better not be any WP7 Series, right?! And look how initially Android didn't light any reviewers' fireworks, and look where it is now? What if hp can turn webOS around - 4 years is plenty of time. Motorola are working on their own OS etc... Heck, in 4 years Sanyo could rule the market after adopting Samsung's Bada in 2013?!!!

JanSt / MOD  Mar. 31, 2011 at 12:43

Glad Time Magazine is on my side for once:

"The very fact that IDC's projections were so heavily profoundly by the Nokia-Microsoft news shows that all estimates about what smartphone marketshare will look like in a few years are hopeless. The Nokia-Microsoft alliance isn't a once-in-a-lifetime, world-changing stunner–it's a big twist, but no bigger than numerous other ones that have impacted phones over the past few years. And plenty more developments of equal significance will happen between now and 2015.

The more I think about this, the more I believe that it was painfully obvious in September of 2010 that the chances of Symbian's share being 32.7 percent in 2014 were very low. The venerable operating system simply isn't competitive, and the only way it could have held on to nearly a third of the market would have been if it got much, much better very, very quickly. Nothing about the Symbian saga over the past four or five years suggests that was likely to happen.

In other words, it would have been smart in September 2010 to predict Symbian's share cratering by 2014, even if you didn't know the exact means by which that would happen."

Read more:


You don't need an account to comment. Just enter your email address. We'll keep it private.