Nokia Lumia 800 not getting the job done says analyst

Nokia Lumia 800 not getting the job done says analystThe Nokia Lumia 800 has attracted plenty of positive press since it was officially unveiled at Nokia World a couple of months ago.

But despite that – and despite all the marketing cash Nokia has spent trying to raise public awareness of its first Windows Phone – the Lumia 800 looks set to get nowhere near its year-end target of two million units sold.

That's the conclusion of a survey conducted by Exane BNP Paribas in the five European markets where the Lumia 800 has gone on sale. Out of an initial 1,300-strong group of consumers, Reuters reports, the survey focused in on 456 who said they were intending to buy a smartphone in the next month.

Of that number, just 2.2 per cent said they would definitely be going for the Lumia 800, leading Exane BNP Paribas to slash its sales forecast for 2011 from two million to just 800,000.

“With only 2.2 percent of surveyed buyers firmly intending to purchase the Lumia, Nokia's first flagship Windows Phone is ... far behind the current blockbusters, Apple's iPhone 4S and Samsung's Galaxy S II,” analyst Alexander Peterc wrote.

To put that figure in perspective, Reuters tells us, the Nokia N8, which had the much-maligned Symbian^3 as its OS, sold between 3.5 million and 4 million units in its opening quarter.

That's not entirely fair, of course, as not only was the N8 delayed for months, which built up a backlog of pre-orders, but more importantly it launched globally, rather than in just a handful of countries.

One other thing: does it strike anyone else as strange that out of a group of 1,300 people, 456 of them – fully 35% – say they're planning on getting a new phone within the next month?

Read more about: Windows PhoneNokia Lumia 800

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11 comments

JanSt / MOD  Dec. 17, 2011 at 21:53

"not entirely fair"...re. N8: well, that delay created preorder backlog? Well, it also gave Murtazin and others ample opportunity to try and dis the N8. To no avail. It took Elop's February madness to bring N8 sales to a plateau...

Stelph  Dec. 18, 2011 at 13:52

How funny, considering how negative a lot of reviews were about the N8 as well due to the perceived flaws of symbian it still seems to have done better than the Lumina 800? Crazy

JanSt / MOD  Dec. 18, 2011 at 18:31

Yep, mad. Until Elop's February mad-hatter speech, the N8 was outselling pretty much every individual smartphone exc. for the iPhone.

Repo  Dec. 19, 2011 at 10:35

Anyone found a Nokia Prostitute 800 for under £400 SIM free yet?
Given that the competitor WP7 handsets are £250 to £300 SIM free then it's no surprise that punters aren't putting the 800 at the top of their shopping list.

JanSt / MOD  Dec. 19, 2011 at 10:52

True - price is a joke. Great build quality aside: the Lumia 800 has NOTHING to justify the price. Unless... Nokia/Elop KNEW they'd never sell many anyway, and decided to ... Nah. They wouldn't would they?

With the N9's price slowly coming down the Lumia is an even worse. Choice.

martinjjames / MOD  Dec. 19, 2011 at 18:00

Well far be it for me to pick a fight here (especially since I'm in full agreement with Jan on most things Nokia-related), but let's call a spade a spade here.

While Eldar Murtazin's anti-N8 rants were certainly biased, can you tell me with a straight face that they're any more biased than "Elop's February madness", "Elop's February mad-hatter speech", "price is a joke", Lumia 800 has NOTHING to justify the price", Nokia/Elop KNEW they'd never sell many anyway"?

Yes, his comments caused a lot of damage, and yours probably won't, but that's in no way a measure of fairness or accuracy.

Everyone's entitled to their own viewpoint, of course, but surely you can't deny that a large number of Nokia fans have been determined to hate the "Prostitute 800" (nice btw) from day 1 purely because of what it represents and how the decision to switch to WP7 was handled?

I'm not saying I think switching to Windows Phone was the right move, in fact that's just the point. I don't know yet, and until quite a bit more water passes under the bridge, neither do you.

For the record, I agree that the Lumia 800 is overpriced, and I agree that the N9 is the better phone specifically (though not only) because of how well it works with MeeGo v Windows Phone on the Lumia 800. And as for the N8, it says a lot about its class that we're still talking about it at all nearly 2 years after it was announced.

But suggesting that Elop's February's decision was effectively an act of sabotage, and that had he just kept his mouth shut the N8 would have been one of the best-selling phones of 2011? Can't say I'm with you on that one.

JanSt / MOD  Dec. 19, 2011 at 20:55

Martin,
I see where you're coming from. And maybe I should be less harsh and more to the point. More "factual"... Fact is though that the N8 sold well right until Elop's February speech. Fact is that the announcement of the Nokia-MS deal caused a frenzy of calls a la "Nokia ditched Symbian", and similar inaccuracies. That led to countless folks saying, buying a Symbian phone is stupid because support would be poor once the WP7 devices are out.
That in turn meant that many people who would have stuck with Nokia decided to go elsewhere for kicks.
Of course, Nokia was in trouble before Elop, but what I just nutshelled can be directly traced to Elop's speech. He basically said, yes - you Nokia bashers, you were right.
Add to that the unique shift - suddenly we look to the USA for the next big things like upcoming iDevices, Android handsets etc etc... Nokia never quite made it in the USA, and in comes Elop telling US tech-bloggers and consumers: "yep, we suck, you were right".

The N8 sales figure reference somewhat eludes me, Martin: the N8 outsold every other smartphone bar the iPhone in Q4 2010. And it actually still sells okay-ish all things considered. I t would have sold better though with more support. I have no doubt whatsoever that Belle, e.g., has been delayed solely because the Lumia isn't living up to the hype that MS and Nokia bought when they gave away thousands of freebies to bloggers and newspaper editors and apps developers.

Belle in Q4 would have instantly turned Symbian ^3 devices into viable X-mas options, because it improves speed and looks... Now it's promised for "early 2012".
While the new and actually released Belle handsets are lacking the "must haves" of 4in plus screen size etc etc....

To conclude: granted, I have no proof Elop is a Trojan. But so what? Microsoft's history is shady. The deals with Gartners and others during the "Vista Ready" scandal are well documented. So why pretend the notion something shady could be going on is outrageous? It doesn't help that Elop is so very unconvincing. Whenever he says "we", you have to reread. You will see almost every time that "we" means "Microsoft". It does take a sociolinguist to figure that out.

Furthermore, I stand by my assertion that his CV does not suggest he would grasp or appreciate 'open source'.
What I can't prove is that the Lumia was called "prostitute" as an inside joke :p

JanSt / MOD  Dec. 19, 2011 at 21:00

I meant doesn't take a sociolinguist, of course.

Stelph  Dec. 20, 2011 at 10:56

@MartinJames - Not that im trying to gang up on you as well but other facts are as follows

1) Between Dec '10 and Feb '11 Nokia's stock price was actually going up, mostly due to sales of the N8 I would guess, but then in Feb there is a huge drop in the price which has yet to plateau, all since the Feb "burning platform" announcement

2) In Feb '11 Elop MUST have known and had access to a fairly solid demo of Meego and the N9, since in June a final device was available for press to try, and it must have been obvious that it would be a solid device with real potential

3) The software programmers for Symbian MUST have had a roadmap for the upcoming Symbian updates which Elop would have access to which would have outlined how they could repair Symbian so it would be a solid secondary operating system they could control for mobile devices as

4) Between 2009 - 2010 Symbian had held steady at around a 30% worldwide marketshare (with the potential for a lot of those to move to Meego since they had bought into the Nokia ecosystem) Windows had gone from 7% to a 3% share even with the move from WP6 to WP7 (Even now with the huge drop in share due to Elops announcement Symbian is a 16% and Windows is a 1.5%)

However despite all of the above, in Februrary 2011 Elop went on stage and performed commerical suicide by slating their current range of phones, without offering an Nokia based alternative (i.e Meego or WP7) for months, and even then when their first real alternative to Symbian came to market (the N9) Nokia only manufactured limited numbers and to a limited market

ANY other strategy would have been better,

1) he could have announced that WP7 was coming to Nokia but not slated Symbian
2) he could have promoted both WP7 and Meego for their high end phones

or

3) he could have focused the company on Meego and had full control over their own operating system along with Symbian for thier "cheaper" smartphones

At best Elops behavior and decisions to date seem to suggest he joined Nokia with one opinion about how best to turn it around (i.e. by bringing in an external OS like Android or WP7), at worst it suggests he came to Nokia already decided on WP7 with no other options considered.

Stelph  Dec. 20, 2011 at 10:56

Apologoies, that is quite a rant :(

JanSt / MOD  Dec. 20, 2011 at 11:30

Martin,
You got me at a tired moment yesterday. It's not that I can't let go or admit failure. But comparing my statements to those Murtazin made with regards to the N8 is somewhat puzzling and offensive. Murtazin had an early N8 prototype and he blew his findings well out of all proportions: he decreed the N8 camera to be rubbish. There is consensus, I believe, that said phone cam still hasn't been bested. He spewed a lot more damaging inaccuracies even when it became clear that his premature findings were wrong.
I said the Lumia 800 has little to offer to set it apart from other WP devices. Nokia did its best with a gorgeous design and great materials, but the lack of differenriation in terms of what's under the hood has been widely criticised. Simfree the Lumia sells in the iPhone region. It is overpriced.
And I am entitled to the suspicion that they may have purposefully NOT released it everywhere to control damage. The damage of failing in THE most important shopping time of the year.
IYou also know that Belle is ready for deployment and has been for some time. The ONLY reason to not release it is that Belle would take some of the spotlight off of the Lumia.
If I had claimed 8 months ago that my proto prozzie (Nokia chose the name. Don't blame us for Spanish) sucks, then my rants would range somewhere on the Murtazin scale. As it is, they don't,
I obviously expect you at dawn behind the church.
And PS: I'd love for the 900 to do better. Despite my deep distrust of all things Microsoft I do rate the HD2 highly.

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