The RIM share price surge is over. Why is anyone surprised?

The RIM share price surge is over. Why is anyone surprised?The general response to the BlackBerry Z10 and BlackBerry 10 in the wake of Wednesday's launch event has been mixed, but analysts seem to be mainly in the negative camp, downgrading the company's stock and prompting a sharp drop in share price.

Criticisms range from the Z10 being too expensive, to RIM's brand identity having become too damaged for a new phone and platform, plus an official name change from RIM to BlackBerry, to turn things around for the Canadian firm.

Credit Suisse's comments do a good job of summing up broad investor sentiment: it sees “limited scope for traction in the hypercompetitive smartphone market”.

As for the RIM share price (the company only officially starts trading as “BlackBerry” on Monday), it closed on Wall Street yesterday at $12.92, well down on the recent high of $17.80 it hit a week earlier.

Now fair enough – the doubts being expressed are valid ones. RIM has been badly damaged as a brand, the Z10 and BB10 – while impressive enough – are only major strides forward in terms of what they're replacing, and BlackBerry's rivals have massive momentum right now.

Yet considering how widely and no doubt deliberately the Z10 and BB10 were leaked, it's not like we didn't know pretty much all of that before Wednesday's launch.

Yes, the naming of Alicia Keys as creative director was a bit see-through, but such gimmicks are aimed at consumers, and ultimately do little to sway investors one way or the other.

Arguably more damaging was BlackBerry's European MD Stephen Bates' short-sighted stonewalling of everything other than pro-BlackBerry questions on the BBC on Wednesday morning, but that's still not a major deal in investor-land.

Looking at the RIM share price's trajectory, it's almost like anticipation for the company's first genuinely new product activity for over a year created a bubble-like effect over the month of January. And like all bubbles, the hard facts tend to be what pops it and delivers a cold dose of reality.

Compared to a month ago, RIM's share price is actually up. Not by much, but it's up. And that is probably a far closer reflection of what BlackBerry 10 really represents. It undoubtedly improves things for RIM/BlackBerry, but it's going to take far more than one phone and the promise of better things to come to have a lasting impact.

Via Reuters

Read more about: Blackberry OS

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Stelph  Feb. 1, 2013 at 12:27

Out of curiosity, has a companies share price ever ended up after an announcement? It seems like everyone (Apple included) has abig slump after annoucements of new products, perhaps analyists are just getting too hyped up for these things

Pondlife  Feb. 1, 2013 at 13:35

Not sure but that's more of a plummet (wp7 handset price style) than a mere drop.
Not surprised it dropped to some degree with just one handset ready for the launch they'd long mentioned and even that not in all territories.

respighifan  Feb. 1, 2013 at 17:20

The company is just starting over, folks - I consider it to be like an IPO of sorts. The BB10 is all new, and the future potential of integrating across the spectrum of devices through QNX is something that most investors and analysts are just not taking into account.


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