You already know the deal with BlackBerry 10: it's coming. Early next year-ish – not so far away that RIM isn't talking about it (regularly), but not so soon that there's all that much point in listening yet.
All RIM is doing, of course – ably orchestrated by top man Thorsten Heins – is trying to keep BlackBerry relevant until BB10 actually gets here. So he won't appreciate Pacific Crest Securities analyst James Faucette's blunt dismissal that the new platform is “likely to be DOA”.
Faucette's latest research note to clients, obtained by Bloomberg, said he saw little hope of a turnaround in RIM's fortunes, and no matter how good BlackBerry 10 is, it will simply slow rather than halt the decline.
“We believe BB10 is likely to be DOA,” the note reads. “We expect the new OS to be met with a lukewarm response at best and ultimately likely to fail.”
He attributes that likely failure to three basic problems: an unfamiliar UI, the lack of compatible technology, and the limited selection of apps.
The problem is time is really now running against RIM. The most optimistic forecasts still talk of a wait of three months still before the first BB10 handsets hit the market.
That was Heins' decision – or so he says – as he wanted to make sure the OS was truly ready before unleashing it on the public. Or it could just be behind schedule.
But you can't help but feel RIM would be so much better off right now had it been able to join the mobile madness of the past couple of months by getting something out the door in time for the big festive spending season.
Or maybe RIM thinks business users don't believe in Santa. Hopefully RIM still believes in miracles... because it's looking more and more like it's going to need one.