I'm happy to confess that I'd quite like the BlackBerry Z10 and BB10 to succeed, or at least survive. Not because I particularly like either the Z10 or the company behind it, but simply because variety is surely healthier than a lack thereof.
Sadly, though, some analysts are already suggesting I might end up disappointed, saying unsold inventory is building up and early enthusiasm for the rebooted BlackBerry ecosystem is already fading.
One such naysayer is Pacific Crest analyst James Faucette, who claims unwanted BlackBerry Z10s are building up across UK sales channels, with inventory levels already above the norm for a device meeting its sales targets.
“Our checks indicate that as sell-through run-rates for the Z10 have declined meaningfully in the weeks following launch,” Forbes reports Faucette as writing, “we believe carriers and third-party retailers in the UK are already well above typically targeted inventory levels.
“Canadian carrier stores and retailers also appear to be rapidly approaching targeted levels, in our view.”
It's worth noting that Faucette's lack of faith in BlackBerry - formerly RIM - is far from new. After predicting in November that BB10 would be "DOA" when it launched, he continued the negative spin last month, saying he couldn't see BlackBerry making a profit based on the Z10.
The point being that everyone's entitled to an opinion, but until hard numbers emerge we shouldn't forget that's exactly what it is.
Not that Faucette isn't prepared to stick his neck out with some claimed figures of his own, which together with claims of price drops even at this early stage means he has only one recommendation to anyone holding BB stock.
“We continue to believe that the company likely shipped roughly 275,000 to 325,000 Z10s in the February quarter for the UK and Canadian markets,” his investor note reads. “Further, we estimate that the company is likely to ship one to two million units in the May quarter, with sell-through likely well below that figure.
“As such, we believe optimism around BlackBerry is overdone at current levels and would remain sellers.”