Research firm Pyramid recently suggested that Windows Phone would become the most popular smartphone operating system “by 2015”. Well, it’s clearly loving all the attention it garnered as a result of said claim, and now suggests Microsoft’s OS will surpass Google’s Android even sooner than we inferred.
Stela Bokun, a Senior Analyst with Pyramid, explains: “Some people have misinterpreted our statement, thinking that Windows Phone (WP) will establish its leadership in 2015. As you can see from Exhibit 1, we actually believe that this will happen much earlier – as early as 2013.”
Pyramid largely attributes the predicted rise of Windows Phone 7 to the partnership of Nokia and Microsoft. The arrival of the Finns is expected, crucially, to drive down the price of WP handsets.
Stela also points to the multi-vendor support that WP has, which is currently a key advantage for Android. While Apple has essentially one iPhone, Android is adopted by a number of manufacturers across dozens of handsets.
As well as Nokia, Microsoft’s OS has support from HTC, Samsung and LG. The only big name missing there is Motorola.
We tend to take predictions like this with a pinch of the proverbial salt. For example, the iPhone was merely a twinkle in Apple’s eye five years ago. How can analysts look into the future with any degree of certainty?
Similarly, who could’ve predicted that Apple would take the previously unsuccessful tablet idea and make megabucks? Or that 3D would, after a series of false starts and against all conceivable logic, become stupidly popular in the 21st Century?
Stuff is random. No one knows what the hell will be happening in five weeks never mind five years, and no amount of fancy graphs will convince us otherwise. The end.